Watchdog of the Taxpayer's Dollar Since 1956 Fairfax, VA The FAIRFAX COUNTY TAXPAYERS ALLIANCE Mission:   Influence elected officials to end excessive spending, borrowing, and taxes.

Home Email Alerts Press Releases Testimony Taxpayer Links Bulletins FCTA in the News Trend Graphs Speak Out! About Join Support Contact

Join online or print membership form

Updated November 29, 2009

---

We are developing a new

Steve Hunt states that the doubling the Virginia budget between 1998-2007 was excessive. He also states that increasing inflation-adjusted school spending four times faster than enrollment and college budgets three times faster than enrollment were excessive. The other two candidates have also been invited to answer the questionnaire.
Primary details: Dec 1, 2009 6:00 pm - 10:00 pm at Centreville High School 6001 Union Mill Rd Clifton, VA 20124-1131

Jim Hyland, Republican candidate in the 35th district, was attacked by his opponent for an answer to a question about school spending increasing four times faster than enrollment. This however was a question that Mr. Hyland's opponent had not answered.

With the Republican victory in the race for Virginia governor, Senators Warner and Webb are believed to be wavering in their support for President Obama's massive increase in government health care spending. Please communicate your opposition to Virginia's senators soon. The Senate vote may be in a few weeks.

FCTA letter to the Honorable Mark R. Warner United States Senate 459A Russell Senate Office Building Washington, D.C. 20510 Phone: 202-224-2023 FAX: 202-224-6295 Email Senator Warner

FCTA letter to the Honorable James H. Webb, Jr. United States Senate 144 Russell Senate Office Building Washington, D.C. 20510 Phone: 202-224-4024 FAX: 202-228-6363 Email Senator Webb

Virginia needs $5 billion more per year for transportation. But when Virginia revenues increased by $17.4 billion between 1998 and 2007, only $2.5 billion of the increase was spent on transportation. Where did the rest go?

Forty years' experience with Medicare and Medicaid contradict claims that more government health care will reduce the deficit.

Jim Hyland, Republican candidate in the 35th district, was attacked by his opponent for an answer to a question about school spending increasing four times faster than enrollment. This however was a question that Mr. Hyland's opponent had not answered.

Politicians manufacture another "budget crisis" to justify higher taxes

What drives up taxes: public schools and welfare

Candidates would spend income taxes on transportation

Candidate questionnaire on government spending

Where does your candidate REALLY stand on higher taxes?

Virginia's current budget shortfall is the result of unsustainable spending increases between 1998 and 2007.

According to the Virginia General Assembly's Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission report, Review of State Spending: 2007 Update, between 1998 and 2007:

Virginia spending doubled, from $17.6 billion per year to $35 billion (Table 1);

Inflation-adjusted spending for public schools increased four times faster than enrollment (Table 4);

Inflation-adjusted budgets for public colleges increased three times faster than enrollment (Table 4);

Medicaid spending, adjusted for medical inflation increased faster than the number of Medicaid-eligible recipients (Table 4);

Of the $17.5 billion increase in state spending, only $2.6 billion went to ease Virginia's transportation crisis (Table 13).

Also, according to the just-released ACT college admissions test 2009 Profile Report for Virginia, only 27 percent (26 percent in 2008) of Virginia high school seniors were prepared for college-level coursework (Table 1.1, page 7).

On behalf of the Northern Virginia Tea Party coalition, the Fairfax County Taxpayers Alliance mailed questionnaires to 60 candidates asking if they felt these spending increases were excessive, sufficient, or insufficient. Here are the questionnaires:

Candidate Questionnaire on Virginia spending - PDF version

Candidate Questionnaire on Virginia spending - MS Word version

These questionnaires were sent, via certified mail, to the candidates for governor (Creigh Deeds, Bob McDonnell), lieutenant governor (Bolling, Wagner), attorney general (Cuccinelli, Shannon), and the 54 Northern Virginia candidates for delegate. (There are no state senate races this year.)

Candidates were asked to respond by September 1.  As of September 19, eleven delegate candidates and no statewide candidates had responded.

Visit the Virginia Who's My Legislator website to determine your delegate district.

The following candidates for delegate said that all the spending increases were excessive (except for Hyland, who was undecided about spending increases for public colleges, and Danny Smith, who was undecided about spending increases for both public schools and colleges):

Hyland (R-35) www.HylandForDelegate.com Cannon (R-36) www.CannonForDelegate.com Smith (R-38) www.DannyForDelegate.com Cholko (L-39) MattCholko.com Bury (R-39) www.JoeBury.com

Bolognese (R-41) KerryBolognese.com Nank (R-43) www.TimNank.com Ringel (R-48) www.RingelForDelegate.com Merola (R-53) www.Merola09.com

The following said that the spending increases were sufficient:

Watts (D-39) VivianWatts.com

The following said that the spending increases were insufficient:

Ruebner (Green-47) RuebnerForDelegate.org

Candidates who do not campaign for spending cuts before they are elected have no mandate to reduce spending or taxes after they are elected.
Make sure that the candidates you vote for have gone on the record about Virginia spending.

When candidates ask you for money, volunteer support, or your vote, ask them to answer the Northern Virginia Tea Party candidate questionnaire.

Click here to see all candidates running in Fairfax County and their contact information.
Voters outside of Fairfax County can visit the Virginia State Board of Elections Candidates List to determine candidates running in any Virginia county or city.

Candidates receive more questionnaires than they can answer. To encourage candidates on your ballot to answer this questionnaire:

Mail it to them and ask them to respond.

When candidates ask for contributions and volunteer support, ask them to answer this questionnaire.

At candidate meet-and-greets, give candidates a copy of the questionnaire and ask them to respond.

At candidate forums, request that these questions be asked.

Publicize this questionnaire in emails, blogs and letters to the editor.

The $650M budget shortfall faced by the county this year is not the result of too little money; it is the result of too much money.  During the housing bubble, the supervisors used higher assessments as political cover to double real estate taxes.  With the resulting extra hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue, county inflation-adjusted spending has increased more than twice as fast as population.  Fairfax County Public Schools inflation-adjusted spending has increased three times faster than enrollment.

If the county and schools had increased spending at the same rate as inflation, population, and enrollment between FY2000 and FY2009, the county would be facing a $50M shortfall instead of a $650M shortfall.    (more ...)

The Superintendent's FY2010 budget contemplates a $200-million cut that would increase class size by two students. However, the Superintendent does not acknowledge that since FY2000, school spending increased $429 million more than needed to keep up with enrollment and inflation. At his budget press briefing, we asked the Superintendent how much of that increase was spent on fringe benefits. He did not know.

More than half of the $429 million was spent to give school employees higher raises ($110 million) and better benefits ($151 million) than taxpayers get.

Between FY2000 and FY2007, residential real estate taxes increased ten percent per year. Raises for school employees were over five percent per year. According to the County Executive, homeowner incomes were increasing two percent per year.    (more ...)

Governor Kaine's proposed budget cuts school funding by six hundred million dollars.  Here are some points to consider in evaluating the Governor's plan:

Between 2000 and 2007 (most recent year for which data is available), total inflation-adjusted public- school spending in Virginia (local, state, and federal) increased four times faster than enrollment (34% vs. 8%).  Staff increased twice as fast as enrollment (18% vs. 8%).

Between 1979 and 2007, real spending increased 11 times faster than enrollment (165% vs. 15%) and staff six times faster (97% vs. 15%).

In dollars, since 2000 Virginia real spending on public schools increased $3 billion more than needed for inflation and enrollment growth ($3.9B vs. $.9B).  The increase since 1979 is  $9 billion ($9.9B vs. $.9B).   (more ...)

NOTE: Scoring at the 66th percentile means that the average Fairfax County Public Schools (FCPS) senior scored higher than 66 percent than the 1,518,859 seniors who took the 2008 SAT. It does NOT mean that the FCPS school district is only at the 66th percentile of all school districts. The College Board, which administers the SAT, does not publish rankings of school districts.

SCHOOL FAIRFAX COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 2008 SAT RESULTS COLLEGE PLANS (2008) ATTAIN 4-YR COLLEGE DEGREE (EST) READING MATH READING + MATH PERCENTILE RANK 2-YEAR 4-YEAR THOMAS JEFFERSON 722 749 1471 98 1 0% 100%% 100% LANGLEY HIGH 601 621 1222 82 2 6% 91% 83% MCLEAN HIGH 579 601 1180 77 3 18% 76% 61% WOODSON HIGH 577 596 1173 76 4 15% 81% 67% OAKTON HIGH 563 583 1146 72 5 17% 79% 65% LAKE BRADDOCK SEC. 554 576 1130 69 6 25% 69% 51% MARSHALL HIGH 550 580 1130 69 6 26% 67% 50% MADISON HIGH 555 568 1123 68 7 17% 79% 65% All FCPS high schools 547 565 1112 66   25% 68% 50% ROBINSON SEC. 542 565 1107 65 8 21% 71% 53% HERNDON HIGH 546 554 1100 64 9 24% 68% 50% CHANTILLY HIGH 533 561 1094 63 10 23% 69% 51% WESTFIELD HIGH 532 559 1091 63 10 23% 72% 54% WEST SPRINGFIELD HIGH 540 549 1089 63 10 27% 68% 50% CENTREVILLE HIGH 525 548 1073 60 11 24% 67% 48% SOUTH COUNTY SEC. 527 534 1061 58 12 27% 66% 46% FALLS CHURCH HIGH 521 536 1057 57 13 33% 49% 32% SOUTH LAKES HIGH 526 531 1057 57 13 28% 58% 37% LEE HIGH 514 534 1048 56 14 45% 47% 32% FAIRFAX HIGH 511 536 1047 55 15 36% 57% 37% STUART HIGH 511 518 1029 52 16 42% 50% 31% ANNANDALE HIGH 505 520 1025 51 17 42% 49% 30% WEST POTOMAC HIGH 511 514 1025 51 17 33% 57% 36% VIRGINIA 511 512 1023 51         NATION 502 515 1017 50         HAYFIELD SEC. 507 503 1010 49 18 35% 57% 37% EDISON HIGH 493 508 1001 47 19 34% 53% 32% MOUNT VERNON HIGH 491 498 989 45 20 38% 45% 25%

"College Plans" shows, for each high school, the percent of the Class of 2008 graduates who planned on attending two-year and four-year colleges. Sixty-eight percent of all Class of 2008 graduates planned to attend four-year colleges. "Attain 4-Year College Degree" estimates, for each high school, the percent of 2008 graduates who will earn four-year college degrees within six years. The FCTA estimates that about fifty percent of all Class of 2008 graduates will earn four-year college degrees within six years (i.e., by 2014).

FCPS does not know what percentage of its graduates attains four-year college degrees. However, we can estimate this percentage based on data from the State Council of Higher Education in Virginia (SCHEV): Sixty-seven percent of freshmen at Virginia four-year public colleges graduate within six years. (Link) Graduation rates are higher at competitive colleges, e.g., 93 percent for U. Va. compared to 47 percent for Va. Commonwealth. We approximate this by saying that a school's SAT percentile equals the percentage of college freshman from that high school who will obtain a four-year degree.  Using McLean for example, the percentage of McLean HS seniors who will graduate from a four year college is .76 * .77 = 59%. Notice that the SAT percentile approximates the percentage of seniors attending four-year colleges. The biggest exception is Madison HS. Madison's SAT percentile is at the 68th percentile but the percent of Madison seniors attending a four-year college is 79%. Where there is a difference between a school's SAT percentile and the percentage of its graduates going to four-year colleges, we use the larger number for the college graduation rate. Using Madison HS for example, the estimated percentage of seniors graduating from a four-year college is the percentage attending a four-year college squared: .79 * .79 = 62%. According to a 12/9/08 email from SCHEV, about 12 percent of freshmen at Virginia two-year colleges obtain a four-year college degree within ten years. So for example, the estimated percent of McLean HS seniors attaining a four-year college degree is .76*.77 + .18*.12 = 61%. FCPS publishes SAT results in an annual press release. Table to convert SAT scores to percentiles is found at www.collegeboard.com.

---

According to the 2009 ACT college admissions test profile for Fairfax County Public Schools, 39 percent of the 3,237 seniors tested (?? percent of all FCPS seniors) were prepared for college.

84 percent were prepared for college English composition

67 percent were prepared for college algebra

69 percent were prepared for college social science

44 percent were prepared for college biology.

Thirty-nine percent were prepared in all four areas.

This is an increase since 2003 when only 1,107 seniors (10 percent of all seniors) took the ACT. Of these, 28 percent were prepared for college.

More students take the SAT than the ACT exams. In 2008, approximately 7,900 seniors (70 percent of alll FCPS seniors) took the 2008 SAT.

Unlike the ACT, the SAT college admissions exam does not estimate the percent of test-takers that are prepared for college.

In 2007 the Virginia General Assembly passed HB3203, which authorized about $400 million in new taxes and fees for transportation. The Virginia Supreme Court subsequently found most of the bill to be unconstitutional and public opposition forced the repeal of the "civil remedial fees" that increased some traffic fines to $1000. However, what did survive from HB3202 was authorization given to county supervisors to raise real estate taxes on business. So Fairfax County supervisors raised the commercial real estate tax rate by 11 cents, resulting in a $52 million tax hike on businesses, who will pass the higher taxes on to the consumers.

Tax hikes for transportation are unnecessary. Transportation is a state, not a county, responsibility, and Virginia has had ample tax-revenue increases to pay for transportation. However, transportation revenues are diverted to out-of-control spending increases for public education and welfare.

Between 1998 and 2007 Virginia spending doubled, from $17.6 billion to $35.1 billion. That is $17.5 billion of new spending. To keep up with population growth and inflation, the budget needed to increase by only $8 billion, to $25.6 billion. This graph is based on numbers in the next table, below.

Between 1998 and 2007, Virginia spending increased at an average annual rate of 8 percent. See the column lableled "Total" and its associated "Percent Change" column. This table is from the Virginia General Assembly's Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC) report, Review of State Spending: 2007 Update, available here or at jlarc.state.va.us (pdf file). To keep up with population and inflation, spending needed to increase 4 percent per year.

Of the $17.5 billion of new spending, only $2.6 billion was allocated to transportation. More transportation spending should come from existing revenues and not from billion-dollar tax hikes. These charts are based on the Virginia General Assembly's Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC) report, Review of State Spending: 2007 Update, available here or at jlarc.state.va.us (pdf file).

This table is from page 26 of the JLARC 2007 report on state spending. It shows that most of the $17.5 billion spending increase went to education (public schools and public colleges) and Health and Human Resources. The latter includes large spending increases for Medicaid. There was also a large increase for Public Safety, including prisons. This table does not include the increase of $950 million to reimburse local governments for the "car tax cut."

This table is from page 7 of the JLARC 2007 report on state spending. It shows that between 1998 and 2006, inflation-adjusted spending for public schools increased four times faster than enrollment (37% vs. 9%). Public-school staff increased five times faster than enrollment (48% vs. 9%). Likewise, inflation-adjusted budgets for public colleges increased three times faster than enrollment (46% vs. 15%). The number of Medicaid-eligible recipients increased twice as fast as population (29% vs. 12%), and the Medicaid budget, even after adjusting for medical-care inflation, increased four times faster than population (48% vs. 12%).

Between FY1979 and FY2007, Virginia Public Schools inflation-adjusted spending increased 11 times faster than enrollment, 165% vs. 15%. School staff increased six times faster than enrollment, 95% vs. 15%. According to the U.S. Census Bureau's report, Public Education Finances - 2006, Virginia ranks 17th among the 50 states and Washington, D.C., in per-pupil elementary-secondary spending on instruction. (Table 11, page 11)

Trends in the Statewide Remediation of First-Year Students Number of first-time, first-year students, having graduated at a Virginia high school in the previous 12 months, enrolled in remedial coursework during their first year of enrollment. Year Total in Remedial Courses English ESL Reading Math Total Students Percentage of Students in at Least One Remedial Course 2001-02 6,419 3,734 163 25 5,117 30,564 21% 2002-03 5,127 2,878 42   4,269 29,750 17% 2003-04 5,946 3,473 100 21 4,729 32,408 18% 2004-05 7,573 4,372 298 81 5,669 35,006 22% 2005-06 6,486 3,867 142 77 4,888 35,129 19% 2006-07 9,191 5,341 246 268 6,884 39,282 23% 2007-08 7,424 4,105 63 273 5,949 38,894 19% One out of five Virginia high-school graduates attending college requires remediation. Source: State Council of Higher Education for Virginia website, Dec. 6, 2008. Visit Statewide Remediation of First-Year Students According to the 2009 ACT college admissions test 2009 Profile Report for Virginia, only 27 percent (26 percent in 2008) of the 17,902 Virginia high school seniors tested were prepared for college (Table 1.1, page 7). This is up from 18 percent in 2003.

The transportation solution is to manage education and welfare spending so that they better track the increases in population and inflation. Out-of-control education and welfare spending drive up taxes and divert money from transportation. The failure of public schools to educate low-income students and welfare, which promotes out-of-wedlock births by providing subsidized medical care, housing, food, and childcare to unwed mothers, are perhaps responsible for the increase in inmates. The state-responsible inmate population increased more than twice as fast as population (32% vs. 12%), and the probation and parole population increased four times faster than population (55% vs. 12%). Higher taxes are not the solution; they are the symptom of ineffective government programs, especially education. According to the ACT college admissions test, only 23 percent of Virginia, and U.S., high school graduates are prepared for college.

The Washington Post cites FCTA opposition to Fairfax County's 2008 bond referendum: Economy Dims Prospects for Fairfax Parks Bond Issue. Thursday, September 25, 2008; Page VA04 (Fairfax Extra). The following supplements the FCTA's quote in the Post.

Fairfax County is wasting about $100 million annually on interest for its $2 billion debt because, for most years, the amount borrowed (bond revenues) is about the same as the cost of borrowing (debt service). See bars on the graph. When the county does this, its debt (red line on the graph) increases. Between 1983 (first year for which data is available) and 2008, Fairfax County inflation-adjusted debt has increased from about $1.5 billion to $2.3 billion. The $2.3 billion in debt does not include interest owed, which is another $800 million. If the county had not borrowed, it could have used the debt service funds to pay for capital improvements. Capital spending would have been about the same as with bonds, and there would be no debt and no annual $100-million interest payment. The high cost of interest for bonds is justified only when the revenues from bond sales significantly exceed the annual debt service payment. While it depends on interest rates and the repayment period (20 years, 30 years, etc), the amount you can borrow is about ten times the annual debt-service payment. This is called "leverage." To get leverage, you cannot sell more bonds until previously sold bonds are paid off. You would have one year where revenues from a bond sale are ten times the annual debt-service payment. Then for the next twenty or thirty years you would pay the debt service but sell no more bonds. However, Fairfax County, except for 1989, sells bonds every year. If you sell bonds every year you lose leverage. You can only borrow approximately the same amount you paid back. However, the amount you owe increases by the amount you borrow plus interest. This is what Fairfax County is doing. For the county, whose repayment period is usually twenty years, interest costs are about half the amount borrowed. So if the county borrows $200 million through bond sales, it owes another $100 million in interest. In 1994, the county sold an extra $117M of bonds to purchase the Herrity and Pennino buildings adjacent to the Government Center. The total amount borrowed was twice the debt service. In this case borrowing would have been justified, assuming that the purchase, which was controversial, was justified. The county did not include the 1994 bond sale for the Herrity and Pennino buldiings in its total debt figure until 2002. That is why there is a jump in the red line in 2002. (With the purchase of the Herrity and Pennino buildings the supervisors bypassed putting the bond to referendum by having the Fairfax County Economic Development Authority (EDA) sell the bonds. The county also used the EDA to bypass referenda for the South County High School and the new school administration building bonds. The county is not legally obligated to pay off bonds unless they are approved by referendum. Bonds not approved by referendum are therefore riskier, have a lower credit rating and a higher interest rate, and consequently cost the taxpayers more.) Having gotten itself in the situation where the cost of borrowing about equals bond revenues, the county cannot easily dig its way out. To reduce borrowing, the county would have to reduce operating expenses by $250M to free up money to replace bond revenues. The county should not have gotten into this situation in the first place. The county should start getting out of debt and should eliminate non-essential borrowing. The bond referendum, for example, pays for maintenance of county recreation centers and golf courses. The county should not be using taxes to compete with the private sector. If golf course and recreation center maintenance cannot be paid for from user fees, then they should be privatized or divested. Funding for the "countywide sportsplex", artificial turf, trail enhancements, development of new parks should wait until they can be funded on a pay-as-you-go basis. In June, 2008, the Fairfax County Taxpayers Alliance emailed to the supervisors a request to include the projected interest costs for bonds and the annual amounts for bond revenues and debt service in the county's "2008 Bond Referendum Information for Residents" pamphlet. The county declined to do this. Moreover, the county's pamphlet states that bonds do not increase taxes. This is false. In FY2009 the county is paying $106 million in interest on its $2.3 billion debt. This $106-million interest payment accounts for 4.6 cents of the county's 92-cent real-estate tax rate. (Each penny of the real estate tax rate generates $22.8 million in tax revenue.)

Download handout with earlier version of these graphs (1/31/06). This two-page pdf file was given as a handout to the Virginia Senate Finance Committee. It also shows that while staff in Virginia's public schools has been increasing seven times faster than enrollment, Virginia SAT scores have remained flat.

The Center for Education Reform gives Virginia's charter school law a "D" grade. Virginia has only three charter schools, with a fourth scheduled to open in August, 2008. As of November, 2005, North Carolina had 100 charter schools.

At its meeting on August 15, 2006, the Fairfax County Republican Committee (FCRC) overwhelmingly approved a resolution opposing higher taxes and fees for transportation. The Committee instead urged the Virginia General Assembly to pay for transportation from the budget surplus.

The FCRC resolution was drafted by Fairfax County Taxpayers Alliance (FCTA) First Vice-President, the Honorable David C. F. Ray. It was a substitute for an FCTA resolution submitted to the FCRC by FCTA president, Arthur G. Purves.

Resolution Opposing Higher Taxes and Fees for Transportation Adopted by the Fairfax County Republican Committee, August 15, 2006

Whereas the Virginia General Assembly during the 2006 session adopted a biennial budget containing record spending increases, and Whereas Virginia continues to experience budget surpluses, and Whereas the voters of Northern Virginia overwhelmingly rejected the sales tax increase referendum in 2002, and Whereas the Virginia General Assembly in 2004 passed the largest tax increase in Virginia’s history, and Whereas the Virginia General Assembly is planning a special session later this year to address transportation, and Whereas several interests have proposed various tax increases to fund transportation needs, Therefore, Be it resolved that the Fairfax County Republican Committee calls on the Virginia General Assembly to reject any and all tax and fee increases during the upcoming 2006 special session and the 2007 session, and Be it further resolved that the Fairfax County Republican Committee calls on the Virginia General Assembly to use surplus budget money and any as-yet unallocated funds to address transportation needs, and Be it further resolved that a copy of this resolution be provided to all Republican members of the General Assembly from Fairfax County prior to the convening of the 2006 special session.

In a Washington Times article Burden of taxes up over 10 years (2/9/06), Virginia Governor Tim Kaine's new Secretary of Finance, Jody M. Wagner, attempts to blame tax increases on the state's car-tax rebate. In fact, former-Governor Gilmore's car-tax rollback accounts for less than ten percent of the state's budget increases over the past ten years. Education and welfare account for 60 percent of the increase.

State and local government growing faster than general economy Grandfather Economic Report by Michael Hodges (05/13/06)

THE NEW NEW LEFT: How American Politics Works Today - Tax Eaters vs. Taxpayers (12/4/05) Real estate taxes fund generous government-sector raises, pensions, and health insurance while the private sector is losing theirs.

Download the 2005 Virginia state budget (pdf file - 675 pages, 2.5 Mb) Spends $66B during FY2005 and FY2006. It is House Bill 1500, approved May 4, 2005, and published as Chapter 951, Acts of the Assembly.

Collective Bargaining Drives Away Good Teachers -- Read More Here

Dulles Toll Study Considers $3 Tolls -- Report quietly released eight days before vote to raise tolls (2/11/05) This is a large document (23Mb) and takes several minutes to download.

FCTA ARCHIVES